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Kenya could face a grimmer food crisis after weather
experts predicted prolonged dry weather even as a new study shows that billions face food shortages globally due to climate change.
The Kenya Metrological Department says the onset of the long rains could be delayed until late March and beyond.
Mr James Muhindi the Kenya Meteorological Department Acting Assistant Director says cooler ocean temperatures over the Indian Ocean could lead to prolonged dry spells in most parts of the country. "The cooler temperature over the Indian Ocean at this time of the year is quite worrying because it could lead to prolonged dry spells," says he says.
The Indian Ocean influences weather patterns in central and southeastern.
But more worrying is the fact that the projected harsh weather could threaten food production and worsen food shortage, which is already spiralling out of the control.
At least 10 million people are in dire need of food aid as hunger sweeps across the country following massive crop failure.
The developments come in the wake a new study that shows climate change is likely to have more dramatic effects on global agriculture, leaving around half the world’s population facing serious food shortages.
The study by University of Stanford researchers that was published in Scidev.net finds that harvests of maize, rice and other staple crops could drop by up to 40 per cent by the end of the century because of higher temperatures during the growing season.
Climate
The researchers calculated the difference between historical and projected average temperatures each season throughout the world using data from 23 global climate models that contributed to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis.
The research aimed to construct a global picture of the fate of agriculture under climate change than previous analyses.
It predicts that for every rise in seasonal temperature of one degree Celsius, yields of major grain crops will drop by 2.5-16 per cent.
However, the outcome could be worse as many of the regions assessed are projected to become drier, which would add to the temperature stress.
Tropics
"The population will double in the next 50 years in the tropics and sub-tropics. How do you adapt to that, especially with the lack of resources there," posed co-author Roz Naylor.
The researchers call for major investment in adaptations to develop crops that are tolerant to heat and heat-induced stress, and irrigation systems suitable for diverse environments. A key first step, they argue, is investment in infrastructure.
Closer home, the realities of the impacts of climate change are being felt.
In Makueni District an estimated 100,000 residents could starve to death if urgent measures are not taken to feed them.
Most parts of Eastern Province have had two consecutive crop failures due to unavailability of rainfall, coupled with intense heat that scorch the crops.
But even as the wretched faces of hunger stricken residents flash across TV and newspapers their fate could be replicated in parts of Central and the Rift Valley provinces that have been hitherto thought to be food secure.
The Government has spent billions of shillings to import 1.5 million bags of maize to bridge the food gap, with little success.
The State will now spend more to import a further three million bags of the staple food as the hunger gets out of hand.
But such interventions could amount to a drop in the ocean. According to Muhindi, the Southeastern sector and central parts of the country are likely to be more affected by the possible late onset of the long rains.
"In central, a delay in the rains would be disastrous because the area is already reeling from the effects of drought. Lack of rain would transform the crisis to a disaster," he says.
Breadbasket
In the event that the rains delay, says Muhindi, planting would be postponed in Western and North Rift, the countries breadbasket.
"Late onset of the rains means the planting season in Western and North Rift will be delayed, which would in turn lead to poor harvest," he says.
The North Rift normally produces some 70 per cent of Kenya’s maize crop. According to Government statistics, maize production in the region jumped 11.8 per cent in 2006 to 36.1 million bags from 32.3 million bags in 2005.
The area is still reeling from the effects of the post election violence.
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